CERSP: Center for Explanatory Research and Scientific Prediction

The Center for Explanatory Research and Scientific Prediction (CERSP) combines social science and machine learning to improve understanding of social change and anticipate what may happen next. Its work addresses a key distinction: explanations of past events do not always predict the future, while accurate predictions may not explain why events occur. CERSP brings these approaches together through its Predict-to-Explain framework, which uses social theories to guide prediction and predictive evidence to test and refine those theories.

The center develops and applies this approach through research on democracy and the social and economic effects of artificial intelligence. Its programs include YAI, focused on artificial intelligence; WINDS, highlighting women’s contributions to machine learning and AI; and projects on democracy, Europe–Asia relations and EU–China issues, and global and far-right populism. CERSP also shares its research through events, conference presentations, publications, and internship programs. Its aim is to provide researchers and decision-makers with practical methods for understanding change, considering possible outcomes, and assessing the limits of available evidence.