Gaza Projections

Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-Based Health Impact Projections is an independent academic project by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health at Johns Hopkins University. Supported by the UK Humanitarian Innovation Hub, with funding from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the project produces scientific estimates to help decision-makers and humanitarian responders plan for possible developments in Gaza.

Its core work is scenario-based projections of excess mortality, examining ceasefire, continuation of observed wartime conditions, and escalation. The analyses cover traumatic injuries, infectious diseases, maternal and neonatal health, and non-communicable diseases, with projections also developed for traumatic injury deaths in Rafah. Related publications examine food availability and child acute malnutrition; the malnutrition paper is solely authored by London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine researchers.

The project provides reports, briefing notes, evaluation findings, Arabic and Hebrew summaries, and technical methods annexes. It also makes data and analysis code available through a public GitHub repository, supporting transparent and reproducible research.