MSR Decode

MSR Decode is an independent research brand operated by Main Street Research LLC, focused on verifying economic and financial claims about prediction markets. Through its MSR Verify work, the organization reconstructs trading activity from underlying records and assesses reported profits, wallet rankings, market volume, fees, incentives, and settlements. Its research examines how observed activity may arise, including the effects of repeated or concentrated trading, offsetting positions, market-making, incentive programs, and settlement mechanics.

MSR Decode publishes case work, research notes, methodology materials, and corrections, with findings linked to source records and documented qualifications. Its reviews distinguish what the evidence supports from what it contradicts or leaves uncertain; the organization also explains when available data cannot support a full reconstruction. For prospective engagements, MSR assesses source availability, data completeness, permissions, scope, deliverables, and fees before work begins. Completed work can include a documented conclusion, economic reconstruction, source schedule, alternative explanations, and limitations. MSR Decode provides informational research, does not route trades or custody funds, and does not promise a particular finding.